12-09-00
The Skins11-29-00
The Skins
Last week the Skins blew a huge opportunity to seize control of the NFC East
by losing to Philadelphia at home. Injuries continue to hobble the offense,
and turnovers continue to give away crucial points. The situation is not
likely to improve significantly, and their margin for error is very narrow
if they want to make the playoffs, let alone win the division and get at
least one home playoff game. Earlier in the year, when the pressure was on,
the team responded with a winning streak, starting with the Giants. Will it
happen again?
The Passing Game
Brad Johnson returns at QB, and said he could have played last week. If
he had played against the Eagles, the Skins might have won that game, simply
because of the goalline play where George zipped it early to a wide-open
Larry Centers who hadn't quite turned on his route yet. Brad would have
held it a split second longer and put more touch on it. Sure it's one play,
but it illustrates why Brad's a better fit for this team, especially with
Westbrook out and Connell questionable. Stephen Alexander hasn't been more
than mediocre as a fantasy TE, but when even Jeff George throws to the TE it
indicates how much more he's been incorporated into the gameplan with the
wideout injuries. Look for more of the same. Thrash had a career game last
week, but made one of the critical fumbles on a punt. He'll still get
plenty of touches, including reverses. Fryar is the #2 man, but the big
Giants DBs should be able to keep up with him. Andre Reed will come out of
the slot, but he hasn't played much and it's tough to assume that he'll be
in the flow of the offense much, especially with the change in QBs. Earlier
in the year, when the Skins had some success deep against the Giants, they
spread the field with multiple WRs, running Thrash and Connell deep.
That'll be harder to do now, but they could do it with Thrash, Reed, Fryar,
Alexander, and even Murrell, Centers, or Champ Bailey split out. The young
tackles, Jansen and Samuels, are playing great, and the interior linemen,
Sims, Fisher, and Leeuwenburg, are battling, but Sims is still troubled by
the Achilles and will be for the rest of the year. Fisher has a foot injury
and was at least partially responsible for a botched QB exchange last week.
Kerry Collins has quietly put together a pretty nice year, aided
significantly by the Giants' effective running game. Tiki Barber is the
most dangerous backfield receiver outside of St. Louis, and should have a
very productive day against the Skins. Toomer has gotten over his
mid-season slump, and Joe Jurevicius is filling in nicely for the injured
Ike Hilliard. The Giants respect the Skins' corners, perhaps too much.
Pete Mitchell has remembered that he's in a contract year and could also do
well at Fed Ex Field.
The Running Game
In pretty much every story about the Skins this week, there's talk of how
they had a bajillion plays inside the six yard line and couldn't punch it in
with Skip Hicks and Adrian Murrell. They aren't Stephen Davis, but the line
didn't blow people off the ball, either. They just block better when they
know they have Davis running it. He'll play this week with some sort of
protection on his forearm, but could be susceptible to fumbling. Don't
think the Giants D won't target this, just like the Jets targeted the Bears'
James Allen, who they knew had stitches in his hand and ended up fumbling
three times. The risk of greater injury is supposedly diminished. Davis
will get 20+ carries unless the pain is too severe or he lays it on the turf
more than once.
You pretty much know the story with the Giants running game by now. If
they're in a close game, you see both Dayne and Barber. If they're ahead,
then it's Dayne. Behind, Barber. Dayne's the short yardage and goalline
guy, and Barber's the longball threat. Against the Skins, Dayne will get
more carries than he did last time, but I think the Giants will try to get
some big plays by getting it in Barber's hands plenty.
Special Teams and Defense
Eddie Murray's FG attempt that he missed was at the very end of his range
and into the wind. Norv Turner knows this and won't hold it against the
veteran kicker. He'll also be more likely to go for it or punt in a similar
situation in the future. Thrash's duties on offense may begin to wear on
his ability to return kicks. I'm dying to see them give Champ Bailey a
chance, and think he could explode if given the opportunity. The Giants are
not a big-play team in the kicking game.
Collins can be rattled with pressure, and you could see more blitzing this
week, particularly from safety Sam Shade. Brad Johnson makes good decisions
with the ball and it should be hard for the Giants to get many sacks, though
they should be able to hit him several times.
Prediction
I believe that the Giants can win this game if they open up the offense
and take some chances. I'm skeptical as to whether they'll actually do that
or not, and think that while they may take a few shots, they'll remain
relatively conservative. If the Skins get down early, they will have a hard
time coming back. As long as they can stay in the game, Brad Johnson should
be able to lead the team on some sustained drives, provided that Davis can
at least remain a threat to run the ball. Lots of ifs, though, and this is
a tough game to predict. A big play or two will probably decide the game,
and I think that's most likely to come from either Tiki Barber or the Skins
defense, perhaps LaVar Arrington or Champ Bailey. In December, at home,
I'll lean toward the Skins D. Washington 23, New York football Giants 17.
For most fantasy football leagues, it's either the last week of your regular
season or the first week of your playoffs. Consequently, I'm adding a new
category: Big Gambles. Some players who would have been classified as
Starters earlier in the year will end up in the Gamble slot, indicating that
they are less likely to post performances comparable to earlier in the year,
along with players who are normally inconsistent but have a shot at a TD or
good yardage this week. Big Gambles will be either Starters who are very
likely to put in bad performances, or Bench players who could help you pull
off a desperation upset.
Studs: none
Starters: Tiki Barber, Ron Dayne, Stephen Alexander, Pete Mitchell
Gambles: Stephen Davis, Larry Centers, Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins, James
Thrash, Irving Fryar, Joe Jurevicius, Eddie Murray, Brad Daluiso, Skins D
Big Gambles: Skip Hicks, Adrian Murrell, Albert Connell, Andre Reed, Giants
D
Bench: Ike Hilliard
The Ravens
The Ravens have a bye this week. You might not want to start any of them.
The good news is that no team has to try to rush the ball against that
defense this week.
Good luck to everyone except those of you in my leagues. And remember, as a
wise woman once said: "If you don't start in the morning, you can't drink
all day."
11-23-00
The 'rents were in town last weekend, and the
wife was in full in-law panic,
so I did not get the opportunity to write a column last week. Be glad you
weren't me.
The Skins
The Skins looked great in all phases of the game last week on the road
against the Rams. Given the number of starters who were out or nicked, it
was a pretty compelling performance. Don't count this team out, and don't
overrate the Rams against a disciplined team that can play pass defense.
The Passing Game
Jeff George gets one more spin around the block before Brad Johnson returns
from his torn MCL. Whatever you're hearing, believe this: Norv Turner
thinks his best shot at winning now is with BJ, and Norv makes the call, not
The Danny. It may cost him his job at the end of the season, but it's Norv's
call. This week, Jeff faces a stout pass defense with limited receivers.
Look for Vincent and Taylor to lock down Thrash and Connell for the most
part, with George forcing it in there more than he should. Some times it
will work, and some times it won't. Fryar will get lots of attention from
Jeff and is perhaps the only time this year that he's worth a start. Centers
will get far enough down field and has excellent hands, so he'll get a few as
well.
Donovan McNabb deserves consideration for NFC Offensive Player of the Year.
When Duce went down, I thought this team was cooked. He's showed
leadership, cool in the pocket, and serious playmaking. Unfortunately, he
and the offensive line are the only guys on that side of the ball that
wouldn't get a pass from an expansion team draft. I still think that Charles
Johnson sucks, Torrance Small hasn't shown anything, and none of the young
WRs have filled the void. When Chad Lewis is your best receiver, you're
fucked. And that's no disrespect to Chad Lewis.
The Running Game
Uh oh, Stephen Davis has another late-season injury. This time, it's a
hairline fracture in the forearm. Not good for a power RB. I don't think
he'll play this week, and if he does he's very likely to more severely injure
the arm. Last week, Adrian Murrell was inactive. Skip Hicks looked very
good, and Norv knows how to change the play-calling when he's in the game.
Hicks would have had a rushing TD last week except for a questionable holding
call. If you have Hicks and Davis and have to submit a lineup by noon on
Thursday, go with Hicks.
Darnell Autry refuses to go away. Would I start him, other than out of
desperation? No. But he'll get more chances than that stiff Pritchett or
anyone else. The Eagles will maintain the illusion of a running game, and
Autry will be the primary beneficiary. McNabb will pick up some nice rushing
yardage.
Special Teams
Eddie Murray doinked one off the upright last week in an extra point
attempt, but don't worry about it. If you need a kicker, pick him up. The
Eagles don't score enough to make Akers worthwhile. The Skins' special teams
made some huge plays last week, as did the defense, but don't get your hopes
up. Sure they're a better start than the Bears or Panthers, but if you're
making a playoff run and counting on the Skins D or ST, you're screwed. I
like the Eagles this week because they'll bring some pressure to rattle
George, and he'll sling it out there for whoever to grab.
Prediction
Ultimately, the Eagles just won't be able to come up with enough points to
win this, barring two defensive TDs. The Skins will turn it over, but
they'll move the ball. The Eagles will struggle but get some lucky breaks.
At home, with Skip Hicks running the ball well, the Skins will prevail.
Washington 23, Philadelphia 17.
Studs: none
Starters: McNabb, Hicks, Murray, Eagles D
Gambles: George, Davis, Centers, Autry, Connell, Thrash, Fryar, CLewis,
Akers, Skins D
Bench: Pritchett, CJohnson, Small, Alexander
The Ravens
The boys from Baltimore inflicted a severe beating on the once-proud Cowboys.
This was a display of a team realizing what it could do, matched up against
a team realizing that it could no longer do what it once could. I feel bad
for Emmitt.
The Passing Game
Baltimore's Trent Dilfer to Shannon Sharpe...three years ago would you have
believed that was a solid fantasy football hook-up? This year, it's money in
the bank. Qadry Ismail remains the go-to WR, but isn't putting up great
numbers. Patrick Johnson gets the call for the rest of the year with Travis
Taylor out, but don't expect too much. Jermaine Lewis makes the spot
appearance but is still a punt return specialist who hasn't returned a punt
for a TD since 1998. Brandon Stokely has a few plays in the playbook, but
they won't get called too often. Holmes and Lewis aren't getting many
receptions out of the RB spot. Ayanbadejo is still hurt, Evans is still
hurt, and Gash still can't catch.
Kevin Johnson is a good receiver. On a team with a decent line, a decent
QB, and some veteran WRs, he could be awesome. Until then, he's a risky
proposition. The other Browns receivers are a grab-bag. Pederson's playing
out the string and is being a professional, but his future is not as a
starting NFL QB.
The Running Game
OK, I was wrong about Jamal Lewis. He's running with power and speed and
looks awesome. If he'd found the endzone in the last couple of weeks,
everyone would be talking about him. If you're in a redraft and have a
chance to trade for this guy, do it. I still reserve my opinion about his
injury history and am not ready to proclaim him the next Eric Dickerson, but
the kid's gotten it done on the field lately. When Priest Holmes has gotten
the ball he's done well, but such is the fate of a late-round draft pick at
the same position as the number five pick overall.
Travis Prentice lovers beware: it's a lot easier to change the RB than it
is to change the entire passing game and offensive line. Prentice remains
the best back on this team (for now), but in the short term it appears that
Jamel White will get plenty of carries. So what.
Special Teams
Matt Stover is having a career year. The Browns rarely get close enough to
kick a field goal when three points still matter. Cleveland is overmatched
in talent, and usually in the NFL this shows up on special teams. The Ravens
D is out of control--if they played anywhere else they'd have a nickname and
be getting huge publicity. This is clearly one of the best defenses of all
time. If Marvin Lewis doesn't get serious consideration for a head coaching
job (assuming he wants one), then something is seriously wrong with this
league.
Prediction
The Ravens' offensive line is pretty ripped up, but that means it's easier
to fall forward than backward. Against the Browns, this is a good strategy.
Jamal Lewis will run until he's winded, and Priest Holmes will tear off a few
yards, and then Jamal will run some more. Occasionally, Trent Dilfer will
throw a play-action pass, usually to Shannon Sharpe. This game will be a
rout early. Chris Redman, the future QB of the Ravens, may even get some
second-half action. Sorry Browns fans, but until you have some linemen,
you're barely a cut above a bye week. Baltimore 27, Cleveland 10. And the
Ravens D will be pissed about that.
Studs: Jamal Lewis, Shannon Sharpe
Starters: Matt Stover, Ravens D
Gambles: Trent Dilfer, Priest Holmes
Bench: All Browns, Ravens WRs
Happy Thanksgiving to all! And remember, as a wise woman once said: "If
you
don't start in the morning, you can't drink all day."
11-11-00
Sorry, folks, but this will be a very
abbreviated column this week. I'm off
to a Veterans' Day party. To all the veterans out there, past, present, and
future, a grateful nation gives thanks. I salute you.
The Skins
The bye week will give the team time to adjust to Jeff George under center
and further adjustments on special teams. Veteran Eddie Murphy was signed to
kick field goals and Kenny Shedd was signed to help the awful kick coverage.
Scott Bentley will handle kickoffs and maybe 50+ FGs.
The Ravens
The Passing Game
Trent Dilfer may have notched 3 TDs against the Bengals, but don't expect
it against the Titans. Sharpe is the only decent play in the Ravens' passing
game. Travis Taylor is on IR.
The Titans' WRs look like ground chuck. Frank Wycheck is the only
worthwhile starter.
The Running Game
Jamal Lewis needs to touch the ball 25 times, and Billick will do his best
to make that happen. It'll be tough going, obviously, but he could surprise
with some flare passes.
Eddie George is still banged up and nobody has run on the Ravens D. You
probably have to start him anyway. Rodney Thomas is a gamble start.
Special Teams
Both teams protect the ball well, so defensive TDs are unlikely. Special
teams are solid, too, but the Titans return men are hurt. Both kickers are
likely to have good games.
Prediction
This game could resemble a greco-roman heavyweight wrestling match more
than a football game. The Ravens are more desperate and play on the road, so
the edge goes to the Titans. Tennessee 19, Baltimore 16.
As always, remember that a wise woman once said: "If you don't start in the
morning, you can't drink all day."
11-05-00
The Skins
The Passing Game
Jeff George gets the call because of Brad Johnson's partially torn MCL.
George will take the snaps through the St. Louis game, but it's Johnson's job
once he's healthy. This is the type of knee injury that can worsen with
playing, so look out. The WRs are still dinged but will play. Thrash and
Connell have been inconsistent. I'd be worried about Centers' and
Alexander's receptions with George since he has a history of going to the
WRs. Andre Reed could be a nice sleeper down the stretch if Connell's or
Thrash's injuries worsen. Fryar's hurt ribs will linger.
Has any QB been hurt more by the "next Joe Montana" label than Jake
Plummer? If I thought he was working hard I wouldn't be so tough on him, but
the guy still can't read defenses. Can't blame it all on Tobin and Trestman.
The Cards actually have the components of a decent passing attack if the
line would solidify. Boston remains up and down like most second year WRs.
Frank Sanders' fate is linked with Plummer. If you're desperate for a TE,
Terry Hardy's clearly the starter and has caught a few balls in recent weeks.
One of the reasons Pittman's the starter, not first rounder Thomas Jones, is
the passing game, both as a receiver and in pass protection.
The Running Game
Norv's not afraid to pass with George, but he'll run more this week because
they're playing on the road against a team that can be beaten mentally.
Plenty o' Stephen Davis this Sunday.
Pittman should be contained by the Skins D but should get enough touches to
be a decent fantasy start.
Special Teams
Nothing special to report here. Blanchard's had a decent year kicking.
Prediction
I like the Skins to dominate from start to finish. Except for the punt
return and the INT TD against Tennessee, the Skins beat Tennessee. Not
dominated, but played well enough to win. They'll take it out on the
Cardinals this week. Jake'll lead the obligatory late comeback for some
trash time stats. Washington 31, Arizona 24.
Studs: Stephen Davis
Starters: Michael Pittman, Kris Heppner, Cary Blanchard, Skins D
Gambles: Jeff George, Jake Plummer, Albert Connell, James Thrash, Andre
Reed, David Boston, Frank Sanders, Terry Hardy
Bench: Larry Centers, Irving Fryar, Stephen Alexander, Cards D
The Ravens
The Passing Game
This may be a reach, but the Ravens' offense went in the crapper when FB
Obafemi Ayanbadejo went down with an injury. His stats weren't great, but
the pass-catching FB is a huge part of Billick's offense. Remember, Chuck
Evans came over with Billick from Minnesota, but was hurt this summer. Sam
Gash is a blocking FB and talented but not a good fit for this system. If
they continue to struggle, you may see Holmes and Lewis in the backfield more
at the same time with Holmes playing the FB role. Travis Taylor is out with
a broken clavicle and Patrick Johnson gets the start. Big deal.
The Bengals have thrown 35 passes in the last two games. When Billick was
with Minnesota they used to do that by halftime. With Cincinnati's success
running the ball lately they can get away with this. Don't even think about
starting anyone involved in the Cincy passing game--you can't count on Peter
Warrick getting a 75-yard reverse every week. GM Mike Brown made a colossal
blunder by not having some veteran WRs on this team and it shows.
The Running Game
The Ravens should find some success running the ball against an injured
group of Cincy LBs. Jamal Lewis should get 20-30 touches and Holmes should
get a few as well. The D should limit Cincy's running game, but the Ravens
will still want to control the clock as they try to get the offense going.
Man, imagine what Corey Dillon could do on a real team. Granted, they have
shown signs of life since Coslet got fired (about two years too late), and
their line is pretty good, but they will not get away with running all day
long against this defense. Nevertheless, they realize that running the ball
is the only shot they have at winning games, and they'll keep doing it this
week unless they get down by 17 or more.
Special Teams
This could very well be a FG-fest. The Bungles are more than capable of
making a huge error in the kicking game. At the same time, at home, they
could bust out some trickery.
Prediction
This game could break the record for the shortest NFL game in history since
it won't be nationally televised and both teams will run the ball constantly.
If the Ravens can get up early and take Cincy out of the run then they'll
close the deal. If Cincy can hang around, and I think they will, this game
will come down to the wire. The Bengals players are carrying a grudge for
what they feel was Baltimore running up the score earlier this year in their
37-0 game. Baltimore finally finds the endzone (which I also predicted last
week--d'oh!), but Cincy prevails in a sloppy, physical game: Baltimore 19,
Cincinnati 23.
Studs: Shannon Sharpe
Starters: Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Ravens D, Matt Stover
Gambles: Priest Holmes, Ravens WRs, Peter Warrick, Neil Rackers, Cincy D
Bench: Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, other Cincy WRs, Tony McGee
That's all for this week. Remember, as a wise woman once said: "If you
don't start in the morning, you can't drink all day."
10-27-00
The Skins
Everyone in Washington is thrilled that the offense topped 30 points for
the first time in a year, thanks largely to the Jags' inability to keep
track of Albert Connell streaking down the field. This is the way the
Skins' offense is supposed to work. Fryar is back this week, but I believe
that Andre Reed will remain the slot receiver for one more week when Thrash
and AC are split wide. The Tennessee defense is very strong against the
pass: excellent pass rush, solid corners, good safeties and LBs. I've been
waiting for a team to really test the middle of the Skins' offensive line
given replacements Leeuwenburg at RG and Fisher at C, and Sims hobbled by
tendonitis in his Achilles tendon, and I think the Titans are the ones to do
it. Jeff Fisher is an outstanding defensive coach and I think he'll attack
this weak point with blitzes up the middle. If they're successful, it'll be
a blueprint for teams to beat the Skins until they solve it. The blitzes
will necessitate man coverage outside, and the speed of Connell and Thrash
could get them free for some long ones if they can get off the line of
scrimmage--something they both have trouble with. Crafty veterans Reed and
Fryar are much better at getting free of the jams. Stephen Alexander is
likely to be kept in to block more this week. Look for Brad Johnson to get
pounded, and for Larry Centers to be an outlet out of necessity a lot. If
Jeff George is a free agent in your league and you have an empty roster
spot, you may want to pick him up because he could be your starter come Week
10.
A lot depends on whether Eddie George can play and be effective. I'm
assuming he'll go, but that Rodney Thomas will get extra reps. With George
in the game the Skins have to key on the run. Their wideouts don't scare
anyone, but McNair's favorite receiver Wycheck should get lots of looks,
especially since the Skins couldn't contain Kyle Brady in the first half
last week. Thomas is a good receiver out of the backfield, but we all know
they're running the ball.
The Running Game
The Skins' formula is nothing new: pass deep to set up the run, and pound
Stephen Davis. As with the recent matchup with Baltimore, Norv Turner won't
be dissuaded by a top-flight run defense and Davis will get 20+ carries.
Titans MLB Randall Godfrey is dinged up and this could matter, particularly
in the second half.
If it looks like Eddie can play when you have to submit your lineup,
you're playing him unless you're ridiculously deep at RB. Earlier in the
week Rodney Thomas looked like a decent start, but unless Eddie takes a turn
for the worse Thomas is only an emergency starter for fantasy teams. The
real rushing gem in this game could be Steve McNair. We haven't seen as
much running from him this year, but more draws and bootlegs may get called
this week to help ease some of the pressure. Skins fans should fear McNair
running on the nickel D.
Special Teams
Both teams have tight kicking games this year. Kris Heppner appears to be
the answer for the rest of the season at PK for Washington, and Al Del Greco
isn't too far behind Gary Anderson on the all-time scoring list. There's
always a possibility for some trickery from Fisher, especially against a
non-division foe who doesn't see as much tape.
Prediction
I like the Titans' pass rush to disrupt the Skins' gameplan early, and for
McNair's rushing and Wycheck's receiving to allow them to get up early.
With Washington playing from behind, the Tennessee pass rush will really be
able to loose the hounds. The Skins are due for a letdown, and playing at
home in a non-division game, this could be the time. This one could even
get ugly. Tennessee 31, Washington 17.
Studs: Frank Wycheck, Titans D
Starters: Stephen Davis, Brad Johnson, Albert Connell, Kris Heppner, Steve
McNair, Eddie George, Al Del Greco
Gambles: James Thrash, Andre Reed, Larry Centers, Skins D, all Tennessee
WRs, Erron Kinney
Bench: Stephen Alexander, Irving Fryar
The Ravens
Will they go 0 for October on TDs? This offense has turned into fantasy
death. Not even the defense can get in the endzone. Brian Billick knew he
had to do something, so he turned to Trent Dilfer. It's true that he was a
one-time Pro Bowl QB, and he does bring some enthusiasm and leadership that
Banks lacks, but I just don't think he's going to get the job done. As with
Banks, the problem lies as much with the WRs as the QB, but people pay a lot
more attention when the signal-caller gets benched. Sharpe's going to have
to start lobbying Dilfer now for more passes, just like he did with Banks.
Taylor continues to struggle. Jermaine Lewis and Patrick Johnson still
don't make plays. The only bright spot is that Ismail appears to be
recovered from his injury and looked pretty good last week, almost pulling
off that acrobatic tiptoe reception at the back of the endzone. It remains
to be seen whether he'll have the same rapport with Dilfer as he had with
Banks. Obafemi Ayanbadejo is out with a foot injury, and that really hurts
because while Sam Gash is a punishing blocker he's a lousy receiver and the
FB is a major component of Billick's passing game. This week they face the
Steelers at home, and while they won't have to fight the crowd noise (except
the boos if things go badly), Pittsburgh has quietly come together and
played some solid ball. The schedule starts to get easier, but not for
another week.
So now we're back to Slash. Kordell and Steelers offensive coordinator
Kevin Gilbride are one of the worst matches in the NFL. Gilbride can steer
a productive offense with the right pieces, but has never been good at
changing his style to suit his players. Kordell has shown that there's
really only one way he can play, and that's to scramble and improvise. In
the short term at least, they appear to have identified the plays they can
run that hide Kordell's weaknesses and allow them to move the ball. Don't
expect the Ravens D to let them hide. Plaxico Burress has a great football
name but has a lot to learn about football at this level. Troy Edwards is
well on his way to being a bust, but in his defense he's never had a pro QB.
Hines Ward and Bobby Shaw produce, but not enough to be fantasy starters,
and we know they'll be headed to the bench as soon as Burress and Edwards
get their heads out of their asses. Have the Steelers ever had a TE who
wasn't an offensive tackle with a number in the 80s? Bettis isn't much of a
threat out of the backfield except on screens, which Kordell executes badly.
In short, stay away.
The Running Game
Billick has to see that he has a new QB, bad WRs, and his receiving FB is
on the shelf. What he does have is two receiving threat TEs, a monster
blocking FB, and two capable runners. What the Ravens desperately need are
some sustained drives to get their confidence back on offense. It's a tough
team to do it against, but at least they'll be at home and the defense and
special teams should give them good field position. If they move the ball
enough, Stover may just win it for them again.
Bettis looks great. For all of you who didn't buy the Richard Huntley
hype in the preseason and snatched up Bettis in the middle rounds, kudos to
you. However, he's starting to wear down again, and if he aggravates his
toe injury he could go in the crapper in a hurry. If he puts up good
numbers against the Ravens, you should trade him. Better yet, unload him
before this week's game. Bettis will get his usual carries, and Bill Cowher
will hope for a performance comparable to Stephen Davis' a few weeks ago.
Unfortunately, he doesn't have the deep passing threat of the Skins, and the
going will be much tougher, so if you're deep and have a good matchup
elsewhere you should do it. Kordell says he's going to run more, and I just
know that Rod Woodson would love to get in another highlight reel, this time
for laying a hit rather than getting blasted with a stiffarm.
Special Teams
Talent drains out of the stingy Pittsburgh franchise, and one of the
places this shows up is special teams. They're young and athletic, but the
Ravens will have some opportunities here. Matt Stover continues to be the
Baltimore offense and should get plenty of kicks again this week.
Prediction
After playing five of their first 8 games on the road, the Ravens can look
forward to some home cooking. I think Dilfer will be a steadying influence
in the huddle but he won't light it up and Billick will play it safe against
a team he thinks they should beat. The D will hold down Bettis and take
advantage of Kordell's errors, and the Ravens will stay in the playoff hunt,
at least for this week. They'll even get in the end zone. Baltimore 23,
Pittsburgh 13.
Studs: Shannon Sharpe, Baltimore D
Starters: Jamal Lewis, Matt Stover (I just refuse to call a kicker a stud),
Jerome Bettis
Gambles: Priest Holmes, Qadry Ismail, Ben Coates, Kris Brown
Bench: Trent Dilfer, other Ravens WRs, Kordell Stewart, all Steelers WRs,
other Steelers RBs, Steelers D
Don't even think about it: Sam Gash, Steelers TEs
That's all for this week. If you'd like to contact me for some bizarre
reason email me at zmurch@aol.com. Remember, as
a wise woman once said:
"If you don't start in the morning, you can't drink all day." Finally,
this
week is the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, Florida,
for the Florida-Georgia game. Go Gators!
To hell to hell to hell with Georgia,
To hell to hell to hell with Georgia.
To hell to hell to hell with Georgia
'Cause we're from Florida.
To hell to hell to hell with Georgia,
To hell to hell to hell with Georgia.
To hell to hell to hell with Georgia
And piss on FSU!
Prediction: Further humiliation for the Bulldogs! Florida 47, Georgia 33.
10-14-00
The Skins
The Passing Game
With Connell and Thrash on the outside, the Skins have one of the fastest
WR tandems in the league. Against Jacksonville this should give them a few
shots deep and open up the underneath patterns for Reed, Alexander, and
Centers, and Davis, who's actually tied with Connell for receptions. Sims
is out with tendentious in the Achilles tendon, so the entire interior of the
line will consist of backups. Fortunately, they're deep enough to get by in
the short term. Don't make too much of the Brad Johnson contract posturing.
Jimmy Smith will play with his bruised knee. He and McCardell will get
theirs versus the Skins but won't go crazy. Taylor could bust a long
reception if they get the right matchup. Brunell will be harassed by the
pass rush again this week.
The Running Game
Stephen Davis has one more carry than Eddie George. He got dinged on the
shoulder last week but played through it. If they need him he'll get
another 25+ carries this week, but Norv would really like to give him more
breathers.
Taylor's back, and once Leon Searcy returns to the lineup he'll return to
fantasy stud-hood. He shouldn't romp on the Skins' solid run D but is a
safe start this week.
Special Teams
Both teams have played musical kickers this year. I hate kickers. The
Jags are wound really tight, and tight teams make mistakes. Special teams
could be where it happens.
Prediction
This week we find out if the Skins have the killer instinct. Jacksonville
is a team in serious trouble. If Washington lets them hang around, they
could gain some confidence and get their season back on track. It'll be
imperative to hang an early lead on them to see if they quit, and this
supposedly formidable defense has some weak spots. I like Norv to have
studied them well and attack deep early with some success, and then hammer
Davis, with a late Jacksonville rally. Washington 24, Jacksonville 17.
Studs--none
Starters--Stephen Davis, Brad Johnson, Albert Connell, James Thrash, Stephen
Alexander, Kris Heppner, Fred Taylor, Mark Brunell, Jimmy Smith, Keenan
McCardell, Mike Hollis
Gambles--Larry Centers, R. Jay Soward, Skins D, Jags D
Bench--Kyle Brady
Basically, it's not a spectacular matchup for anyone, but you have to play
your guys unless you have excellent matchups elsewhere.
The Ravens
The Passing Game
Billick has been saying all the right things about sticking with Tony
Banks, but his actions say it all: Trent Dilfer got extra reps in practice
this week. However, Banks' history against the Titans is pretty good. They
hung 41 points on them in Week 13 last year, with a weaker WR corps, no
Shannon Sharpe, and no Jamal Lewis. Fisher will do his best to have his
team ready, but after a big Jacksonville game last week, I think Tennessee
is in for a bit of a letdown. Ayanbadejo has turf toe and will be slowed if
not out, meaning more balls for Sharpe and the RBs. The WR corps still has
problems running the right routes, catching the ball, staying in bounds, and
breaking tackles. It would help if Banks threw the ball in bounds in the
first place.
The depleted Tennessee WRs seem not to matter that much, since McNair
throws to Wycheck all the time anyway. Thigpen finally got on the field,
and if you feel lucky this may be the one week he's worth starting. Erron
Kinney should get a few passes this week as I expect them to go with a
two-TE set a lot to deal with the Ravens' front seven and try to dictate
matchups.
The Running Game
It was Davis not Lewis that broke the big long run last week. With his
speed and ability to break a tackle he's always got a chance to go the
distance. Holmes continues to get a few carries to keep him sharp. They'll
run both this week and try to get three yards a carry.
Eddie George is destroying people on the football field. I don't think
anyone in the NFL runs harder than he does. Ray Lewis is at the top of his
game right now too. Lewis vs. George is what it's all about and makes this
game worth watching by itself. The Titans may be able to get a blocker on
Lewis better this week as DT Sam Adams could be out.
Special Teams
I hate kickers, but you've gotta love saying "Al Del Greco," rolling the
"r" and booming it out like a boxing announcer. C'mon, say it with me:
Al
Del Greco. Stover's still good. The Titans will pull the occasional trick
play in the kicking game.
Prediction
Both teams played very physical games last week, and this one will be
heated and bloody as well. I like Eddie George to bust the Ravens D's
streak of holding rushers under 100 yards. However, I think the Ravens will
catch the Titans looking ahead a bit and will bust them for a score or two
early before they wake up fully, and that will be enough. Should be a wild
one. Baltimore 31, Tennessee 27.
Studs--Shannon Sharpe, Frank Wycheck
Starters--Jamal Lewis, Matt Stover, Ravens D, Eddie George, Steve McNair, Al
Del Greco, Titans D
Gambles--Tony Banks, Qadry Ismail, Travis Taylor, Jermaine Lewis, Carl
Pickens, Yancy Thigpen, Erron Kinney
Bench--Priest Holmes, Obafemi Ayanbadejo, Derrick Mason
That's all for this week. If you'd like to contact me for some bizarre
reason, email me at zmurch@aol.com. And
remember, as a wise woman once
said: "If you don't start in the morning, you can't drink all day."
10-14-00
Skins Versus Ravens
This week we're treated to a little regional rivalry.
The Passing Game
If Keith Sims' Achilles doesn't recover from the pounding it took on the
turf at Veterans' Stadium last week, the Skins' offensive line could consist
of rookie Chris Samuels and his swollen knee at LT, rookie Mookie Moore at
LG, Mark Fisher at C, dinged Jay Leeuwenburg at RG, and Jon Jansen at RT.
Andy Heck is in reserve and is a solid lineman, and it's a good thing he's
there. Against the Ravens these guys will be tested, and Brad Johnson will
take a beating. It doesn't help that Irving Fryar is out, but James Thrash
looked good last week, even picking up 40 yards rushing on two carries.
Andre Reed will be the third WR, and Larry Centers should catch a lot of
balls this week. Albert Connell took his disciplining by the team like a
man after his sideline outburst last week. The Ravens' young corners Starks
and McAllister will be tested because the Skins will struggle on the ground
like everyone else who faces Baltimore.
The Ravens have their own injury woes on the offensive line. Center Jeff
Mitchell and all-galaxy LT Jonathan Ogden both have bad ankles. Mitchell
almost certainly won't play, but I think Ogden will go and play up to his
usual excellent form. Bruce Smith has been commanding double and triple
teams, but Ogden should rarely need help which will help the Ravens by
adding another blocker elsewhere or putting FB Ayanbadejo out in a pattern.
Tony Banks' stats suggest he's struggled lately, but Billick and Shannon
Sharpe have both been very animated in saying that the team's failure to
score TDs lately wasn't Banks' fault. Without naming names, the answer is
obviously the WR corps. Qadry Ismail has been slowed by injury and got out
of sync with Banks. Travis Taylor has had typical rookie WR problems.
Neither Jermaine Lewis nor Patrick Johnson have burst past their mediocre
competition.
The Running Game
No one runs on the Ravens. That doesn't mean you bench Stephen Davis this
week, though. He will still get his carries, and inside the 10 he'll be the
top option. Just don't expect triple digit yardage. As I predicted, we had
a Skip Hicks sighting last week, and he and Murrell will still get spot
carries as Norv tries to keep Davis fresh.
Brian Billick has grown comfortable calling plays for Jamal Lewis. With
the passing game likely to continue to underperform against Deion, Champ
Bailey, Darrell Green, Sam Shade, and Mark Carrier, Lewis should get 20+
carries and could be trouble if he can break into the secondary a few times.
I still think he's an injury waiting to happen, though--Priest Holmes owners
have faith!
Special Teams
The Michael Husted era is over in Washington. Yes, technically, he did
hit two game-winning field goals. Also true is that if he'd made earlier FG
attempts the Skins wouldn't have gone down to the wire in those games. Kris
Heppner has gone from Mike Holmgren's doghouse, to the streets, to the
Skins' locker room. Such is life for young NFL kickers. Baltimore's cover
teams are pretty disciplined and reasonably athletic. James Thrash hasn't
done much returning kicks, and will probably handle Deion's punt returns
this week as he rests his back. If the game's tight at the end and
Baltimore has to punt, Sanders will probably be back to receive, though.
Matt Stover has been the Ravens offense the last two weeks. He'll rarely
nail one from 50+, but he's been as reliable as they come since busting out
of his slump in early '99. I'm still waiting for Jermaine Lewis to do
something with a return. The Skins cover teams have been pretty good.
Prediction
Washington will try to run and have more success than other teams so far
this year, but not enough to sustain drives. They will be able to pass when
Johnson has time, which won't be often. Baltimore will be successful on the
ground, and I like Jamal Lewis to bust a long one at some point, which could
be the difference in the game. This should be a low-scoring, physical,
close contest that will turn on a big play or two, perhaps a Brad Johnson
fumble or INT. Washington 13, Baltimore 19.
Studs: Ravens D, Shannon Sharpe
Starters: Stephen Davis, Jamal Lewis, Albert Connell, Kris Heppner, Matt
Stover, Skins D
Gambles: James Thrash, Andre Reed, Stephen Alexander, Larry Centers, Tony
Banks, Qadry Ismail, Travis Taylor, Obafemi Ayanbadejo
Bench: Priest Holmes
That's all for this week. If you'd like to contact me for some bizarre
reason, email me at zmurch@aol.com. And
remember, as a wise woman once
said: "If you don't start in the morning, you can't drink all day."
ADDENDUM:
Stephen Davis' wife is in labor! I wish him and his family well, but fantasy
owners should keep an eye on the situation just in case Davis is a
non-football related scratch. Best wishes to the Davis family.
10-08-00
Skins
The Passing Game
Brad Johnson should get some opportunities to throw deep this week because
of the frequent Eagles blitzes. With Tre Johnson now out, perhaps for the
year, Jay Leeuwenburg gets the call at right guard. Jay played well for the
Colts last year on a line that led the NFL in fewest sacks allowed. They
can't afford another injury on the O-line, though. Bobby Taylor and Troy
Vincent are one of the best CB tandems in the league, and Jeremiah Trotter is
a great young LB, but overall I like Norv and Brad's chances of finding the
right matchups.
While Donovan McNabb continues to progress nicely, none of the Philadelphia
WRs scare anyone. Rookies Pinkston and Gaylor should start to see more time
over stiffs Charles Johnson and Torrance Small. Charles, I guess working out
in the offseason with McNabb, just like Harrison and Peyton Manning, didn't
change the fact that you suck, did it? Duce Staley's out and could be gone
for the year. Replacing him is Brian Mitchell, an excellent receiving back.
More on him later.
The Running Game
The Skins will continue their balanced approach on offense, looking to run
Davis to keep the blitz back. On the awful Philly carpet we may see more
carries for Adrian Murrell and perhaps even Skip Hicks in an effort to
minimize the injury risk. Murrell's looked good when he's gotten his touches.
Brian Mitchell would like nothing better than to scorch the team that
ditched him. He has been very vocal about the way he was released, and felt
(rightfully so IMO) that a 10-year veteran deserved a more graceful exit.
His motivation doesn't change the fact that he's a smallish older RB who's
never been a full-time starter in the NFL, but I like his chances to have a
career day. Stanley Pritchett will get some carries and receptions, but he's
nothing special.
Special Teams
Michael Husted is still on the roster somehow. Deion finally busted a long
punt return, but has a back injury. He'll play through it, just like he did
with the ankle. The coverage units are doing well and certainly know that
Mitchell is a huge threat for Philly.
Akers is a good kicker for the Eagles, but they don't move the ball enough
to make him a special fantasy player. I'm not going to predict a return TD
for Mitchell, but I wouldn't wager against it.
Prediction
These teams always scrap for four quarters, and Philadelphia is a really
tough place to play. In the end, Washington is more talented and needs the
game more and will prevail. Washington 23, Philadelphia 20.
Studs: Stephen Davis, Brad Johnson
Starters: Albert Connell, Stephen Alexander, Brian Mitchell, Chad Lewis
Gambles: Torrance Small, Irving Fryar, Husted, Akers, Philly D, Skins D
Bench: Charles Johnson
The Ravens
The Passing Game
The Ravens offense continues to be inconsistent. They lit up the Jags
earlier this year, but the history of this matchup shows the second meeting
to be a low-scoring affair. Qadry Ismail is back, but in his absence Banks
became much more comfortable with Travis Taylor. Still waiting on Patrick
Johnson to do something, and with Jacksonville's sorry depth at DB this could
be the week. Shannon Sharpe still looks like a stud, and Obafemi
Anymaneyechart really plays the receiving FB role well. That doesn't mean
he's more than an emergency starter on your fantasy team.
The Ravens have stated that they're not going to overcompensate to stop
Jimmy Smith from having another career day. I don't think he will, but it's
because of Brunell's struggles. Keenan McCardell continues to rock, and Kyle
Brady continues to be mediocre. They've got to get Taylor more involved in
the passing game if they want to get back in the playoff hunt, but against
Baltimore that'll be tough.
The Running Game
Jamal Lewis looks great but continues to get nicked up. This in the NFL,
buddy. You play through that crap. I'm sticking to my guns on him: he's
not tough enough to be reliable. If you can trade for Priest Holmes cheap,
do it. Nevertheless, this week he should get lots of chances. With the Jags
looking like they could collapse on any given play, Lewis could knock them
out.
Fred Taylor is another guy you should trade for if you can. After the
Ravens stuff him again this week, his value should be at rock-bottom. But I
have news for you: Leon Searcy will be back soon, and the line will come
around. And just look at that schedule at the end of the season! The Ravens
lead the NFL in rush defense. They'll stay at the top after this week.
Special Teams
All of you who wasted a mid-round draft pick on Mike Hollis: this is why
you wait until the end of the draft to take a kicker! Sure he's got a great
leg, but if the team struggles so does the kicker. Matt Stover continues to
get plenty of looks at the uprights and gets it done. Jacksonville's special
teams are unremarkable. Still waiting on Jermaine Lewis to find his groove.
Prediction
Jacksonville will be forced to the air, as has been every team that's faced
the Ravens. Brunell's limited mobility must make his friends and family
seriously fear for his safety this week. He will be hunted down and
slaughtered, and if you have other fantasy options at QB this week you should
start him because I don't think Brunell will finish the game. This game
could mark the end of the Jags' run and Tom Coughlin's regime, especially if
Coughlin overreacts to what should be a tough game. Baltimore 24,
Jacksonville 13.
Studs: Shannon Sharpe, Baltimore D, Jimmy Smith
Starters: Jamal Lewis, Tony Banks, Travis Taylor, Matt Stover, Keenan
McCardell, Jacksonville D, Mike Hollis
Gambles: Fred Taylor, Mark Brunell, Qadry Ismail, Patrick Johnson
Bench: Kyle Brady, R Jay Soward, Jermaine Lewis, Priest Holmes, Obafemi
Ayanbadejo
Finally, my apologies for missing last week's column and getting my columns
in late. I'll try to do better. If you'd like to contact me, my email is
zmurch@aol.com. As always, remember that a wise
woman once said: "If you
don't start in the morning, you can't drink all day."
09-23-00
The Skins
As I looked at the schedule in the preseason I thought that the Skins would
be lucky to get to the Rams game with a winning record, that they would lose
a game or two that they should have won, and that the Cowboys would beat them
at least once regardless of how bad they were. As the folks in DC howl for
Norv's scalp and Jeff George under center after a 1-2 start, I see one of two
things happening: the team will implode under the pressure, or will battle
along staying around .500 until the easy stretch of the schedule late in the
season allows them to make a run for the division title. I believe it will
be the latter because this team simply has too much talent and the veterans
will simply not let the season be wasted. In the NFL, teams rarely are as
good as they look (unless they're the Rams) or as bad as they look (unless
they're the Bungles).
The Passing Game
Center Corey Raymer reinjured his knee and could be lost for the season. In
my opinion, this is where the Skins' troubles begin. Jay Leeuwenberg could
easily step into the starting lineup, and his veteran savvy could help out a
lot. Teams continue to take away the deep ball. Westbrook's absence over
the middle doesn't help, and Larry Centers will likely miss the game with an
elbow injury. Adrian Murrell will replace him as the third down back.
Expect to see more of James Thrash this week as Norv tries to get deep.
We're still waiting on a Stephen Alexander sighting. On the Brad vs. Jeff
debate: George would definitely have completed a couple of those deep
sideline throws that Johnson missed the last couple of weeks, but I don't
think he has the patience to beat teams dinking and dunking down the field
and doesn't have a Tim Brown or Cris Carter that he can just whiz it in there
for and know they'll beat the DB for the ball. Be patient, kids, Brad's the
right QB. What they really need is a bludgeoning attack of Stephen Davis.
That will open up the secondary.
For the Giants, Pete Mitchell will likely miss the game, and he would have
been effective against Washington's mediocre LBs and the inexperienced LaVar
Arrington. Look for Tiki Barber to get nice receiving yardage as well. The
wideouts should be fairly well contained unless the Giants force 8 in the box
with effective running, which I doubt.
The Running Game
Tre Johnson has been very vocal this week. Look for the Pro Bowl guard to
back it up on the field, blasting running lanes for Stephen Davis. If Davis
doesn't get the ball 25-30 times this week it'll be because the Giants opened
the game up 14-0--that's the only reason. The left side of the New York
front 7 will be very tired of FB Mike Sellars, Tre, and T Jon Jansen by the
end of the game.
The NFL's latest wifebeater, Dana Stubblefield, will play for the Skins,
and should get plenty of chances to take on someone his own size. Loser.
The Giants will continue to fire Dayne and Barber on close to 60% of their
plays. Why did it take Jim Fassel three years to figure out that Barber can
make plays?
Special Teams
Brett Conway has been cut and Michael Husted signed. Husted's a journeyman
kicker with limited range and will cost the Skins a game at some point in the
season.
Brad Daluiso continues to struggle.
Nothing stands out in particular for these matchups on defense or special
teams, except that I'm still waiting for a Washington blunder. If that
happens this week, look for the Skins' special teams coach to be the
sacrificial lamb following a Washington loss.
Prediction
This should be a tough NFC East game that may turn on an error or turnover.
If the Skins take out their frustrations on the Giants I like them to
prevail. If they come out flat and fail to rally, the critics' calls for
change will mount. Washington 24, New York football Giants 21.
Studs: Stephen Davis
Starters: Tiki Barber, Ron Dayne, Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins, Albert
Connell, Ike Hilliard, Amani Toomer, Stephen Alexander, Michael Husted
Gambles: Brad Daluiso (always a gamble)
Bench: Larry Centers, Pete Mitchell
The Ravens
I got the score right last week, but I picked the wrong team. Miami
prevailed in a slop-bowl and by the time the Ravens got things going against
the brutal Fins defense the game was over. Write it off.
The Passing Game
Qadry Ismail is listed as questionable but I think he'll go. The Bengals'
woeful secondary is too much to pass up on. The only thing that will hold
Baltimore's passing game in check this week is the score; once they get up by
two TDs Brian Billick will want to see what he really has in Jamal Lewis.
Cincinnati will get plenty of opportunities to test the Ravens' young DBs
since they will be losing (as usual). A young QB, rookie WRs, an average
line, and a bad coach is a horrible combination. They'd better find more
ways to pass the ball to Corey Dillon, but he's no Marshall Faulk and should
be well covered by the best LBs in the game. Look for Starks and/or
McAllister to get at least one pick this week.
The Running Game
Don't get too excited about Jamal Lewis just yet. I remain in the "show
me"
column, still think he can't stay healthy, and don't think he knows the pass
protections well enough for Billick to trust him completely. This week he
should get lots of chances to prove me wrong.
The Bungles' only hope this year is for Corey Dillon to carry the offense.
He ain't carrying shit this week against the toughest run defense in the
league.
Special Teams
If you drafted the Bengals' kicker and your real kicker has a bye this week,
woe unto you. Ditto with their D. Stover will kick XPs not FGs this week.
I like a Ravens sack-fest and a defensive TD in this one.
Prediction
I like the Ravens in an early blowout, with a final score closer than the
game really was due to a late score or two and a heavy dose of Baltimore
rushing. Baltimore 31, Cincinnati 21.
Studs: Tony Banks, Jamal Lewis, Shannon Sharpe, Ravens Defense
Starters: Travis Taylor, Matt Stover
Gambles: Akili Smith (unless you're heavily penalized for interceptions or
sacks), Qadry Ismail (but could have a huge game), Patrick Johnson, Peter
Warrick, Ron Dugans, Corey Dillon (based on receiving yards), Tony McGee
Bench: Priest Holmes, Bungles Defense, Neil Rackers
That's all for this week. As always, as a wise woman once said: "If you
don't start in the morning, you can't drink all day."
09-16-00
The Skins
The Passing Game
Carolina wrote the defensive gameplan for slowing down the Skins, and Detroit
repeated it: keep your safeties deep to prevent Westbrook and Connell from
getting behind you, and make Norv and Brad Johnson work patiently down the
field. Norv excels at taking what the defense gives him, but the players
haven't executed efficiently enough to sustain those 12-play, 80 yard drives.
Brad made a couple of bad decisions, receivers made the wrong reads and ran
the wrong routes, and the blocking wasn't good enough. With Westbrook gone
for the season with a torn ACL, the team will be counting on James Thrash to
help stretch the D, though Irving Fryar gets the start. Connell moves to
Westbrook's position, making him the featured wideout, and while I'd be
worried about his consistency I think he'll make some plays. Andre Reed
signed this week, but I expect very little from him in the near future if at
all. The main beneficiary of Westbrook's injury could very well be Stephen
Alexander who's more than capable of getting down the field and has good
hands. With Dat Nguyen out this week for Dallas I look for Alexander to have
a big game. Larry Centers will continue to be the safety valve and will get
lots of receptions beneath the cover two zone. Oh, and look for Brad Johnson
to deliver an efficient performance, burying the calls for Jeff George for at
least a week or two.
The Running Game
This week's gameplan should feature Stephen Davis, Stephen Davis, and Stephen
Davis. The offensive line would like nothing better than teeing off on the
Dallas front seven and they should get lots of chances. The Boys have some
good run-stopping LBs, but they'll be making lots of tackles 4 yards beyond
the line of scrimmage. By the fourth quarter, those tackles will be 8 yards
downfield. Davis should get at least 25 carries this week and clear 100
yards early in the third quarter, if not sooner.
Defense and Special Teams
Michael Husted will likely be the kicker this week as Conway has a leg
injury. I don't expect this to be a high-scoring game, but there are worse
fantasy kickers to start. Deion is looking for redemption after getting
thumped by Johnnie Morton last week. It's a bit overblown, but clearly the
Lions didn't fear him, at least partly because of his ankle injury. He's
healthier this week and would like nothing better than to return a punt for a
TD in prime time. Cunningham gets the start for Dallas and is more than
capable of making a bad read and tossing one to a DB. Carrier is back from
his suspension and looking to earn his pay, and neither he nor Sam Shade will
ease up as a result of fines from the league office for hitting with the
helmet. Dallas is one of three teams that Bruce Smith has never gotten a
sack against; look for the old man to plant Cunningham at least once. Jerry
Jones must not have much confidence in his offensive line to keep concussed
Aikman out this week, and the Skins should justify that concern. I don't
think LaVar Arrington will get his first start on a Monday night against the
Cowboys, mostly to keep his head straight. He will get more snaps than
Jones, and could deliver some big plays. He'll start Week 4. I don't expect
much from the Dallas D, though the Skins' special teams are always capable of
giving up a big play.
Prediction
The first half will be close, but Stephen Davis and the offensive line will
bury the Boys in the second half. A late rally could bring Dallas into
striking range, but the defense will hold up. Dallas 17, Washington 28.
Skins Fantasy Prospects This Week
Studs: Stephen Davis
Starters: Brad Johnson, Stephen Alexander, Albert Connell
Gambles: James Thrash, Irving Fryar, Larry Centers, Redskins Defense, Husted
Bench: Conway
Boys Fantasy Prospects This Week
Studs: none
Starters: Emmitt Smith, Jackie Harris
Gambles: Rocket Ismail, James McKnight, Randall Cunningham, Seder
Bench: Dallas Defense
The Ravens
Look who's atop the AFC Central! Yes boys and girls, the Brian Billick
system works, especially when combined with a butt-kicking defense. Though
Starks and McAllister got scorched by a career day by Jimmy Smith, the
defense will continue to wipe the running game from opposing teams' plans,
and the secondary will continue to improve.
The Passing Game
Qadry Ismail is out for this week against the Fins. Travis Taylor and
Patrick Johnson will get the start, with Jermaine Lewis getting on the field
a lot. Obafemi Aymaneyechart really stepped up his game and will continue to
catch a lot of balls out of the backfield. Shannon Sharpe's game-winning TD
down the seam was simply a preview of things to come, and he should have a
good game against the Dolphins' safeties and LBs. The over/under on throwing
to Sam Madison's side of the field is 1 1/2, and he has a good shot at
picking that one off. News flash: Miami's Fiedler, Gadsden, Emanuel, and
Shepherd are not Mark Brunell, Jimmy Smith, and Keenan McCardell. The
Ravens' secondary will be playing with an attitude after last week's showing
and should feast on this pathetic passing game, especially with Tony Martin
and OJ McDuffie out.
The Running Game
Billick will continue to give Jamal Lewis chances to prove he should be the
starter, and he will continue to display his bust potential. Priest Holmes
will quietly do what he's asked and show that while he's no Jim Brown he
gives the team a better chance to win games. The Ravens' streak of not
allowing a 100-yard rusher will not be threatened this week.
Defense and Special Teams
The Fins have well-coached special teams but not a particularly talented
group. The Ravens have yet to display big-play potential. Both defenses are
capable of the big play. I'd expect the Fins to blitz up the middle a lot in
an effort to rattle Banks and attack the weakness of the Ravens' line.
Baltimore will be able to snuff the Fins' running game with ease and make it
that much harder for Fiedler to move the team. Baltimore has a good chance
of hanging their second shutout on the scoreboard this week. Both kickers
could get lots of chances.
Prediction
On the night that Dan Marino's number is retired, this game will in no way
resemble a classic Number 13 shootout. Miami 6, Baltimore 19.
Ravens Fantasy Prospects
Studs: none
Starters: Ravens Defense, Stover, Shannon Sharpe
Gambles: Obafemi Aymaneyechart
Bench: Tony Banks, Priest Holmes, Jamal Lewis, Jermaine Lewis, Travis
Taylor, Patrick Johnson
Dolphins Fantasy Prospects
Studs: none
Starters: Dolphins Defense, Mare
Gambles: none
Bench: Jay Fiedler, Lamar Smith, Thurman Thomas, Dolphins receivers
That's all for this week. I'll do my best to get weekly columns in for the
rest of the season. I'm off to a dark bar to watch the Florida-Tennessee
game. Go Gators! And remember, as a wise woman once said: "If you
don't
start in the morning, you can't drink all day."
08-13-00
Ahh. glorious football! The preseason is well
underway and it's time for my
first report on the Washington Redskins and the Baltimore Ravens. All
throughout the offseason I've looked forward to sharing my observations and
opinions on the two local teams. This year I'll be giving two preseason
reports, primarily from a fantasy football perspective, and a weekly report
throughout the season. Are you ready for some football?
The Skins
First a note about owner Danny Snyder. Pundits have compared The Danny to
Jerry Jones, Al Davis, and even George Steinbrenner, painting him as a
meddling owner with deep pockets, obsessed with winning now. That's only
partly right. The Danny IS obsessed with winning now, and has lots o' money
to spend on his favorite hobby, but there the comparison ends. The Danny is
a true Redskins fan, but also an extremely savvy businessman and manager.
He's going to maximize profit from the team and get his money's worth out of
it. He's also smart enough to know that while he's a very knowledgeable fan,
he's not a football professional and that football decisions should be made
by Norv Turner and Vinnie Cerrato. Smart managers hire good people, let them
do their jobs, and hold them accountable for their performance, and that's
exactly what The Danny is doing. This year he'll sit in his owner's box and
watch his beloved Redskins compete for a Super Bowl.
The Coaching Staff
Norv Turner remains one of the best offensive masterminds in the NFL.
Returning from last year's staff is Passing Game Coordinator Terry Robiske,
who may be a head coaching candidate next year depending on the team's
fortunes. Two extremely talented coaches join Norv and Terry: Ray Rhodes
and Foge Fazio. Rhodes returns to his more effective role as the leader of a
team's defense, not its head coach. His pedal-to-the-floor approach has been
embraced by the defensive players who were frustrated by the old scheme which
didn't seem to fit the personnel. Foge Fazio could be a defensive
coordinator on many teams but for personal reasons chose to take the Skins'
linebackers coaching job. He has lots of work to do with these LBs, but has
plenty to work with. Surprisingly, special teams coach LeCharles McDaniel
was retained. If his troops continue to botch coverages and underachieve he
could be fired during the season.
Quarterbacks
Brad Johnson is the man. The only way Jeff George sees the field is if Brad
gets whacked. Yes he has a history of injuries, but Norv will keep him in
the pocket in front of a very good line. The Skins were 6th in the NFL in
fewest sacks allowed last year, and while they will have a rookie LT, he's up
to the job of protecting Brad's blind side and will get help from FB Larry
Centers, an outstanding pass protector. Nevertheless, smart fantasy owners
will pick up Jeff George late, either as trade bait with the Brad Johnson
owner or insurance if they've already landed Brad. The team loves rookie #3
QB Todd Husak, talented and very smart, but he's only worth consideration in
dynasty leagues with big rosters. Looking ahead, Brad Johnson is a free
agent at the end of the year. The team preserved its franchise tag and could
use it on him while they work on a long-term deal, much like with Stephen
Davis this year. Jeff George signed a big four-year contract, but his 2001
cap number is pretty low so he'll be around next year regardless of what
happens with Brad. One last note on the Skins QBs: Norv loves to pass, but
he runs a balanced offense, splitting 46%/54% rushing/passing last year. He
also loves to run it when the team gets close to the end zone. Brad Johnson
should be a reliable QB with his yardage, but don't look for the team to pass
for 30 TDs.
Running Backs
If you can get Stephen Davis, do it. He could be the best fantasy RB in
2000. The Skins were 10th in the NFL in rushing yards last year, and 1st in
rushing TDs. Look for Davis to lead the NFL in scoring (except for stinkin'
kickers) this year, and to stay on the field in more passing situations with
the departure of Brian Mitchell to Philadelphia. Larry Centers, Davis, and
TE Stephen Alexander should be the primary beneficiaries of Mitchell's
departure, with Centers getting the bulk of Mitchell's 30+ receptions, and
Davis getting the bulk of Mitchell's 40+ carries on passing downs against a
nickle defense. Adrian Murrell and Skip Hicks will both make the team and
will compete throughout the preseason for the #2 RB slot. I like Murrell to
win the battle at this point. Centers might be worth a roster spot in larger
leagues--he'll at least keep you from getting a zero at a RB spot during bye
weeks and has a shot at a receiving TD occasionally.
Wide Receivers
Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell proved a lot last year. Both guys will
perform among the top 20 fantasy WRs this year. Westbrook will be more
reliable week-to-week and will get more red zone looks. Connell will take
advantage of teams focusing on Davis and Westbrook, getting some long TDs but
is more likely to have weak stat weeks from time to time. Irving Fryar is a
reliable veteran but just won't catch enough balls to be worth a fantasy
roster spot. James Thrash has developed well and is the primary kick
returner but remains fourth on the depth chart until Fryar retires.
Tight Ends
Larry Centers will continue to eat into Stephen Alexander's production, but
Alexander should have a better year in 2000. He played hurt most of last
year and it affected his ability to get downfield. He'll be the #3 option
inside the 20. James Jenkins is strictly a blocking TE but a very good one.
Offensive Line
Much criticized going into the 1999 season (including by me), the offensive
line is the strength of the Skins. Bookend young tackles Jon Jansen and
Chris Samuels will punish defenders and dominate games for the next decade.
Center Corey Raymer isn't Dermontti Dawson in his prime, but is a very good
anchor to the line. Tre Johnson is a Pro Bowler and a brawler (hence his
supension Week 1 for accidentally punching an official during a fight in the
playoff game against Detroit). Keith Sims is a former Pro Bowler and solid
veteran. Andy Heck and Jay Leeuwenburg add veteran depth and flexibility.
The coaches also love rookie guard Michael "Mookie" Moore, who they believe
they stole in the draft. Barring a Jacksonville Jaguars-style injury list,
these guys will blow away defensive fronts all year long.
Defense
This is simply not the same team as last year on the defensive side of the
ball. The much-publicized offseason acquisitions of Bruce Smith, Deion
Sanders, and Mark Carrier, as well as the addition of DC Ray Rhodes and the
drafting of LaVar Arrington will transform this team into a serious wrecking
crew. Gone is the scheme of having defensive linemen hold up blockers,
depending on inexperienced LBs to make the play. Also gone is the boneheaded
plan of putting Champ Bailey and Darrell Green in zone coverages much of the
time. This year, Deion will lock down one WR, Mark Carrier will bark
coverages and decapitate receivers over the middle, Sam Shade will play
closer to the line, and future Hall-of-Famer Darrell Green will be the team's
#3 CB, covering the slot in passing situations. The defensive line will
feature a rotation of HOFer Bruce Smith, underrated Marco Coleman, pass rush
specialist and speed demon Ndukwe Kalu (Is that a great football name or
what?), vet Nolan Harrison, and former first round pick Kenard Lang who knows
he needs to pick it up or be labeled a bust. Big Daddy Wilkinson and Dana
Stubblefield will be the beneficiaries of the talent at DE and will be freed
up to shoot gaps and disrupt the backfield. Oh, and coming off the corner
will be Penn State rookie stud LaVar Arrington.
For fantasy value, last year the Skins gave up lots of yardage and scores,
but they were 8th in INTs and 15th in sacks, and those numbers will surely
improve. Teams will try to run on the Skins, but Shawn Barber has the speed
to track down RBs from the weak side, and Arrington (who will beat out Greg
Jones for the starting job, don't you worry) knows how to play the run. I
like Kevin Mitchell to beat out last year's MLB Derek Smith, but both players
can get the job done. When teams are forced to the air, either by inability
to run, or by being behind, Deion, Champ, and Darrell will be waiting and all
can take it the distance. For leagues that have individual defensive
players, Champ Bailey could be a mega-stud. Not only was he perhaps the best
athlete in the '99 NFL draft, teams certainly will not be throwing at Deion
much. Champ will continue to be a ballhawk, especially knowing he has
Carrier and Shade backing him up, and he should rack up the tackles as well.
Add his INT return ability and the chance he could see action on special
teams and maybe even at WR and you have a stud.
Special Teams
These guys will continue to make mistakes I believe, but are worth having
just for their return ability. Gone is Brian Mitchell, one of the best
return men in NFL history, but he is replaced by Deion on punts (say no
more), and James Thrash on kickoffs (who showed he could do the job well).
Kicker Brett Conway isn't blessed with great range, but he should get lots of
XPs. The Skins will be too efficient in the red zone to make him a great
fantasy kicker, but he will still get plenty of FG chances.
Overall Outlook
Naysayers will talk about "buying a championship" and "needing to build
team
chemistry." Bullshit. This is a well-coached, talented, deep veteran
team.
They have come together quickly and are serious about getting those Super
Bowl rings. Look for them to go 6-2 or even 7-1 in the division, sweeping
the Eagles and Cards, and maybe the Giants. Non-division foes include
Tennessee, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and the Rams, but I like them to win at
least two of those games and go 11-5 or 12-4 overall (losing 1 game they
should have won early in the year), perhaps earning the very important bye.
After that, they'll have as good a shot as anyone.
Fantasy Recap
Franchise Player-Stephen Davis
Studs-Michael Westbrook, Brad Johnson
Starters-Albert Connell, Skins Defense, Stephen Alexander, Brett Conway
Late Rounder/Bye filler-Jeff George, Larry Centers
Draft those Skins!
The Ravens
The Coaching Staff
Brian Billick made some mistakes as a rookie head coach, but by the end of
the season he had a good grip on the wheel and the team had fully bought into
his plan and his system. Defensive Coordinator Marvin Lewis churned out yet
another fearsome performance from his crew, and Matt Cavanaugh and Billick
made steady progress while working with some questionable talent. This year
the talent has improved and the progress should continue.
Quarterbacks
It's been mentioned elsewhere, but it's worth repeating that this is the
first season since he was in HIGH SCHOOL that Tony Banks returns to the same
offensive system and coaching staff from the year before. Since high school!
No wonder this guy has struggled throughout his career. He is talented, and
this is a very QB-friendly system. As long as Banks shows good judgement
Billick will not pull him off the field, even if he turns it over once in a
while. Trent Dilfer is definitely the backup QB, and the locals are starting
to question his arm strength, particularly on the deep out patterns. If he
does see the field, Billick will play to his strengths and he'll assemble
decent stats. Chris Redman will hold a clipboard all year barring disaster.
He is a very interesting prospect in dynasty leagues, having a great football
mind and excellent leadership skills.
Running Backs
I am definitely in the "Jamal Lewis will be a bust" camp. If he had stayed
in school for his senior year at Tennessee, he would have been #2 on the
depth chart. He has a history of injuries, staying true to that history by
dislocating his elbow (ouch!) in an early preseason scrimmage with the Skins,
knocking him out probably through Week 2 of the regular season. He's too
inexperienced to miss all of camp. He will get drafted long before I would
consider risking a pick on him. [Note to all of you who are in leagues with
me--Is he sandbagging? He wouldn't do that, would he?] Speaking of
injury-prone RBs, Jay Graham has the dreaded high-ankle sprain. If rookie
Robert Arnaud continues to impress during preseason, look for Graham to get
an injury settlement and his walking papers. Good riddance. So who will be
the RB? Priest Holmes. Billick will not go to RB-by-committee, and he knows
what he has in Holmes, a reliable guy who can churn out the yards while
defenders are worried about the passing game. I think Lewis will get into
the starting lineup during the year, but when he goes down again with an
injury (and he surely will), Holmes will step right back in. Holmes won't be
a fantasy stud but will be a good #2 RB when he starts, which should be
often. FB Chuck Evans probably knows Billick's offense better than any other
Raven since he was in Minnesota with him prior to last year. Unfortunately,
he tore his triceps and will be gone until November. While not worth
drafting, his absence could cause problems for both the rushing and passing
games. Free agent FB Sam Gash was just signed, and while he's one of the
best run-blocking FBs in the game it will take him quite a while to learn the
system. Look for more 3-WR and 2-TE sets early in the year as a result of
this.
Wide Receivers
My opinion keeps changing on Qadry Ismail. He's a journeyman WR who only got
on the field last year because of the lack of quality receivers on the team.
Nearly a quarter of his yardage and half of his TDs came in a Week 14 game
against a Pittsburgh team that quit on Bill Cowher, and most of that happened
in a 10-minute span in the third quarter against some DBs who would have been
on the bench if it wasn't for multiple Steeler injuries. Yet as I look at
the Baltimore WR corps (And it's CORPS, not CORE, as in marine corps; damn,
that bugs the shit out of me!) Ismail is as likely as anyone to end up as
the #1 WR this year in a pass-happy scheme. Average talent, above average
opportunity. Hmmm, I'm still not ready to make a recommendation here.
Billick wants Patrick Johnson to step up and be the other starting wideout,
but he busted his clavicle and is out a few weeks. Bad news for a guy who
has plenty of speed but needs to work on his routes and his hands. Jermaine
Lewis looks to be the primary beneficiary, and he has finally started to get
the offense. He'll retain his return duties, and if Billick has another
option at WR Lewis will go to the slot as the #3 guy. Brandon Stokley has
gotten it together and is ahead of the late-signing rookie Travis Taylor (who
was advised to hold out by idiot agent Steve Weinberg, who also botched
Stephen Davis' negotiations with the Skins) for now. Don't expect it to
last. Generally, I'm down on rookie WRs (especially underclassmen who come
out early), but Taylor is clearly the most athletically gifted of this crew
and comes from a very sophisticated Steve Spurrier Gators offense. As soon
as he earns the coaches' confidence he'll be in the lineup. Keep an eye on
his number of receptions throughout the preseason. In summary, all of these
guys are risky, but the payoff could be pretty nice.
Tight Ends
Make no mistake about it--Shannon Sharpe will lead this team in touchdowns
this year. Receivers who change teams almost always take a dive in their
performance the first year, but I think Sharpe is worth the gamble. He has
little competition among the team's targets, he demands the ball, he has
outstanding preparation and physical gifts, he has something to prove, and is
a former fantasy stud (Last year's dropoff by Denver TEs shows it was Sharpe,
not the scheme.) Get him if you can in TE-mandatory leagues, and he may be
worth a look even if your league counts TEs as WRs. Ben Coates is also on
the roster, but his best days are long gone. He might hang on this year, and
if he proves capable you may see him in the TE spot with Sharpe split out
wide from time to time. This improves Sharpe's value, not Coates'. I'd take
Coates over a TE like Mark Bruener, but only as a bye week guy.
Offensive Line
Jonathan Ogden, viewed by some as the best lineman in the NFL, is in the last
year of his contract. Look for an extension some time during the seaon if
not sooner. Ageing veteran Harry Swayne is at the other tackle spot, but he
seems near the end of the road. Underrated center Jeff Mitchell appears to
have overcome the inconsistency that marked his career earlier. The guard
slots are unsettled, with a bunch of guys fighting it out. Look for the team
to continue to juggle here and to keep plenty of linemen on the roster.
While it's not at the bottom of the league, look for the O-line to be the
main focus of the 2001 offseason.
Defense
If you draft individual defensive players, this is the candy store. As a
team defense it's in the top tier, too. How about a few stats? Versus the
rush: 2nd in fewest yards allowed and TDs allowed. Versus the pass: 7th
fewest yards allowed, 12th fewest yards. 10th in interceptions and 6th in
sacks. Brutal. These guys are so good, I'm going to break them down by
position.
Secondary
Future HOFer Rod Woodson patrols the defensive backfield with two of the best
young corners in the NFL: Duane Starks and Chris McAllister. Three very
good DBs are competing for the other safety spot. Incumbent Kim Herring is a
solid player, but the coaches feel that he shys away from contact at times,
still not mentally recovered from a serious shoulder injury. Corey Harris
appears ready to take his job and is very competent, and a solid kick
returner as well. Second year player Anthony Poindexter appears to have
justified the team's investment in him; he looks to be fully recovered from
the very serious knee injury in college that dropped him from a possible
first rounder to a 7th round pick in '99.
Linebackers
The Ravens field the best starting LBs on the planet. MLB Ray Lewis is
second to none (more on him later), Jaime Sharper is overlooked but a
flat-out playmaker, and Peter Boulware only went to the Pro Bowl last year
after playing all season with ONE FREAKING ARM because of a dislocated
shoulder. BTW, the team is still pissed at him for delaying surgery to play
in Hawaii. Screw them--he deserved to go and to play, and he'll be ready for
the season opener. Who is Cornell Brown? If he was in any other NFL city
he'd be a stud starting LB. In Baltimore he rides the pine unless someone
goes down.
Defensive Line
The team added offense-wrecker Sam Adams to an already formidable front,
replacing the suspended Larry Webster. Much has been made lately of his
buddy Michael McCrary getting on Adams about not playing with enough
intensity, which has been the rap on Adams his whole career. When the ball
is snapped Adams gets it done. McCrary commands a double team on nearly
every play and still is a monster. Look for that to continue. As a result
Rob Burnett gets lots of chances to maim QBs from the other side and he does
his best to take advantage of his shots. Lional Dalton is in the lineup for
now, since Tony Siragusa is contining his holdout. Goose isn't really after
more money, though he'd be happy to get it. He just hates to practice. When
the season rolls around, his fat ass will be with the team, clogging up the
run with the best of them. I forget who said it, but Siragusa clearly
follows the physical conditioning philosophy of "you can't pull fat."
Editorial Rant
OK, what's wrong with this picture: Larry Webster is suspended for 10 games
for a pattern of violating the league's substance abuse policy. Ray Lewis
receives ZERO punishment from the NFL for obstructing justice in a double
murder investigation. What? Yes, they are two different cases, but what
kind of signal does that send? It's OK to hang out with serious thugs and be
in situations where people are stabbed to death in a late night street brawl,
but it's not OK to ingest some chemicals? I guess the league is more worried
about maintaining "the integrity of the league" by insuring that players who
take performance-enhancing drugs are punished severely. Sure, taking
performance-enhancing drugs is bad for the NFL. But potentially getting away
with murder (yeah, he copped a plea--blah, blah, blah--I think he's guilty as
hell) doesn't warrant some kind of sanction? Great message, NFL Commissioner
Paul Tagliabue. I'm sure that the friends and families of those two murdered
men are greatly comforted by knowing that you did all you could to maintain
the integrity of the game on the field.
Special Teams
Rumor has it that special teams assassin Benny Thompson is in danger of not
making the team. I don't buy it--every team that is serious about winning
needs a guy like him. In general, the team's talent level has improved and
that should be reflected in better special teams play. Jermaine Lewis'
problems learning the offense affected his returns last year, and teams
kicked away from him or pinned him on the sideline. Teams will still try to
stay away from him, but he should pop one or more TDs this year. Kicker Matt
Stover nearly lost his job at one point early last year but really poured it
on in the second half. He's very reliable inside 40 yards and won't get many
chances beyond. He's a decent fantasy starter who should be available very
late in your draft.
Overall Outlook
The Ravens are better than the Steelers, Browns, or Bengals, but not in the
same class as the Titans or Jaguars. I look for them to blow a game or two
against the lower tier, and steal one from either the Titans or Jags, going
5-3 in the division. Except for an October 15th matchup at Washington, the
non-division schedule is pretty forgiving. I like them to go 5-3 here, too,
with likely losses at home to Dallas and on the road at Arizona. They should
compete for a wildcard spot, and with this defense they have a good chance of
winning a playoff game.
Fantasy Outlook
Franchise player-none
Studs-Ravens defense, Shannon Sharpe (but a risk)
Starters-Tony Banks, Matt Stover
Gambles-Priest Holmes, Qadry Ismail
Serious Risks-Jamal Lewis, Ben Coates, Patrick Johnson, Jermaine Lewis,
Travis Taylor (worth a spot on keeper league rosters)
Buyer beware, except for the D!
That's all for now. I'll have an update later in the preseason, and weekly
updates and analysis of the matchups as long as the teams are playing. Feel
free to email me your comments and questions at zmurch@aol.com.
And as a
wise woman once said: "If you don't start in the morning, you can't drink
all day."
Zeke Murch